Stop Bogarting Tobacco Stocks

You know you have reached a certain level of immortality when your name becomes a verb, and I can think of no better example than the American actor Humphrey Bogart, perhaps best known for his role in that all-time classic, Casablanca. To “Bogart” a cigarette is to leave it dangling sloppily in your mouth, even when speaking, rather than engaging in proper smoking etiquette by giving it a few puffs at a time, then removing it. Over the years, the word also has come to mean to greedily hog something.

Today, I would say both meanings of the word are accurate descriptions of investors in tobacco stocks. Investors are “Bogarting” tobacco stocks — by continuing to hold them at current prices. First, a little disclosure is needed. I have been a major fan of sin stocks in general, and cigarette stocks in particular, for years. (See “Not All Sin Stocks are Created Equal” and “Delightfully Sinful Dividend Stocks” as recent examples.) However, my enthusiasm for Big Tobacco rested on two big assumptions: They are largely despised by both individual and institutional investors because of their pariah status as politically incorrect merchants of death, making them perpetual contrarian value investments.

They pay high and growing dividends that are significantly better than what can be found elsewhere among mainstream large-cap stocks. Unfortunately, I cannot credibly say that either of these conditions still hold. Cigarette stocks have become downright trendy of late as investors have taken to chasing yield in a low-interest-rate world. Let’s take a look at Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), the seller of the iconic Marlboro brand, among many others. Philip Morris appeared to be the perfect stock. It had access to emerging-market growth (roughly half its sales) while benefiting from an American listing and top-notch management. It also paid a dividend far higher than the norm among stable U.S. blue-chip stocks, and that dividend was growing every year.

There’s one little problem here: Philip Morris International still is a tobacco company. Its sales might be enjoying a multi-year boost as emerging-market smokers trade up from cheaper local competitors to premium Western cigarettes, but worldwide demand for their products is shrinking, and fast. In its most recent quarterly release, Philip Morris International saw its profits fall 6% on lower volume sales. And perhaps worse: The regulatory noose continues to be tightened. Consider Australia’s new plain-packaging law.

All cigarette boxes now look identical in Australia. Cigarettes must now be sold in logo-free boxes featuring nothing more than graphic pictures of people dying of smoke-related illness. It’s hard to enjoy taking a drag on that cigarette when you’re looking at a picture of a gangrenous foot. This does not at all bode well for premium brands like Marlboro. Given that tobacco companies are all but prohibited from advertising, how can a premium brand differentiate itself from the cheaper competition when it sells its cigarettes in an identical box?